Mental Models vs. First-Hand Experience
This is one of those topics I’d been pondering for a bit, but was struggling to put concrete words to my somewhat vague thoughts. Fortunately two people summarized it quite nicely. James Clear wrote “When you need to learn quickly, learn from others. When you need to learn deeply, learn from experience.”
And Josh Schultz posted this Tweet.
Now don’t get me wrong, I love mental models. If you frequently read this newsletter, you probably see me referencing them regularly. A few recent examples:
The OODA Loop
The STARS framework from “The First 90 Days”
Eisenhower Matrix for urgent vs. important
Situational Leadership
Many more…
Mental models exist for several good reasons. First they take a complex topic, and summarize/package it in an easy to understand way. Second, and related, they make it easier to communicate something. Rather than explaining something in great depth, you can reference a couple of mental models and more quickly describe something. Finally, they provide the ability to explain something to someone who hasn’t experienced it first-hand.
This is where it gets a bit dangerous. It’s tempting to approach an unfamiliar situation, apply a familiar mental model, and then get a false sense of confidence that you’re heading in the right direction and focusing on the right things.
For example, if I reference back to the STARS model shown below, say I’m stepping into a new business and assess it to be a Turnaround. Theoretically I could turn to the applicable pages in the book, determine what actions are suggested for a Turnaround, and start running that play.
I might even layer on another mental model. In addition to it being a Turnaround, I identify someone on my new team who based on Situational Leadership is a D1 (Low Competence, High Commitment). I then apply the corresponding Directing leadership style. Now I’m really feeling good about myself.
But say up to that point, I spent my entire career in finance for a very large, successful company. And while I was promoted a couple times, I’d never once managed people before. It would be extremely naive to think that because I could link the new situation to a couple mental models, that I was in fact well prepared to succeed in this environment.
Hopefully this hypothetical example helps to get the point across. The best leaders, operators, athletes, performers, etc. draw from deep experience and a lot of reps. To try to summarize how Warren Buffet evaluates a possible investment opportunity, or how Elon Musk crafts a plan for growing Tesla would be an exercise in futility.
So my encouragement would be to still read, research, and famliarize yourself with mental models. But also go out and take action, try new things, build experiences. Because the map is not the territory. A related point would be not to discount people who have a bunch of experience, but may not be as well-read or articulate as you. Just because they can’t clearly and succinctly explain something, or why they have a certain viewpoint, doesn’t mean they’re wrong. Respect and value that experience and try to find a way to tap into it.
Below are a few of the favorite things I’ve read, watched, and listened to the last couple weeks:
Article - Category Management's Next Horizon: How Distributors can Outperform by McKinsey - a lot of people have asked me about my new role as Category Director for MSC. Most of what you’ll see on category management as a discipline relates to retail. This is a really good article that syncs very well to what I’m doing in the event you’re curious
Podcast Episode - Shane Battier: The No Stats All-Star with Patrick O'Shaughnessy - Patrick usually interviews investment and business folks. I was a Battier fan way back when he was at Duke, so this one way fun to listen to. I like the focus on stats and the process moreso than outcomes. The New York Times article referenced in the podcast is really good too
Movie - Prisoners - I was surprised I’d never heard of this one with a couple big name actors in it. It’s a bit long, and difficult/gruesome to watch in a couple spots. Overall really good though, very suspenseful and keeps you on your toes until the very end
Article - Good Ideas Can't Be Scheduled by Morgan Housel - good short article. I’m overly structured, so this is a good reminder for me that often things take time and it’s important to show patience rather than trying to force something
Quote - Do not hurry, do not rest. - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe